Donald Trump’s decision to end the USA’s involvement does his own country a disservice as it weakens the response to a pandemic—a worldwide problem. Life Future Together. These dates will probably change as more citations are uncovered. Samuel Goldwyn died in 1974, and his first linkage to the saying known to QI was printed in 1979. In addition, thanks to Amory Lovins who told QI that some instances of “Niels” were misspelled as “Neils”.). "Never make predictions, especially about the future." Grooks Page: 185 (approximate) In conclusion, current evidence indicates that this comical proverb was first expressed in Danish, and the author remains unknown. This early citation 3 and several others remarked on the Danish language origin of the aphoristic joke: 4. It is always very difficult to prophesy, particularly about the future, and extrapolation of the prices of common stock has ruined many a speculator. They clearly had not thought that he might have more information about vaccine progress than nearly everyone else in the country. It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future. But. In the immortal words of the physicist Niels Bohr, Prediction is very difficult. (JSTOR), 1976, Adventures of a Mathematician by Stanislaw M. Ulam, Quote Page 286, Charles Scribner’s Sons, New York. This citation was mentioned in the prominent reference “The Yale Book of Quotations”. Nostradamus allegedly said, “Prediction is difficult, especially … PMID: 29470331 [Indexed for MEDLINE] Publication Types: Letter; Comment; MeSH terms. While (to quote Niels Bohr) “it is difficult to predict, especially the future” it might be useful (and fun) to pick out some recent developments which might be the forerunner of things to come. A letter attributes the following comment to Niels Bohr: Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Share this quote: Like Quote. Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future 1. (Verified on paper), 1962 Spring, The Kenyon Review, Volume 24, Number 2, “Almost in the Family: IV. Others think it came from the other side of the Atlantic. Future Difficult Prediction. In May 1961 “The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science” printed an instance of the saying using the word “hazardous” instead of “dangerous”. It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. The QI email address is on the About page here. Figures Figure 1. Pictures accessed via Wikimedia Commons. Det er vanskeligt at spaa, især naar det gælder Fremtiden. Mark Twain? “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” Niels Bohr (1885 – 1962) In keeping with the famous quote above, our outlook for stock markets in 2018 is unashamedly honest; it’s very difficult … (Now Published by Reed Business Information) (Google Books full view), 1975 September, Advances in Applied Probability, Volume 7, Supplement: Proceedings of the Conference on Directions for Mathematical Statistics, Some Reflections of a Mathematician on the Nature and the Role of Statistics by Mark Kac, Start Page 5, Quote Page 5, Published by Applied Probability Trust. [i.e. (JSTOR), 1961 September, The Journal of Medical Education, Volume 36, “Medical Education in Denmark” by H. H. Wandall, Start Page 1059, Quote Page 1069, Column 2, Association of American Medical Colleges. ADDENDUM: A kind person (mentioned in the acknowledgement) helped QI verify the 1948 citation. Anonymous? Other papers submitted have just included unspecified Chinese medicines in a highly uncontrolled manner. In 1976 the mathematician Stanislaw M. Ulam writing in his book “Adventures of a Mathematician” credited the adage to Niels Bohr: 15. Update History: On January 5, 2021 instances of “Neils” were changed to “Niels”. Perhaps he used the expression, but the evidence is very weak, and it is very unlikely he crafted it. In the final analysis, all countries will be found to have made mistakes and the politicization of COVID-19 by both the left and the right across the world, which will not help in controlling this pandemic. Antimicrobial Drug Resistance: "Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially about the Future"1. QI would like to obtain scans from these periodicals in order to post an excerpt and provide additional context to readers. We make no apology for the amount devoted to coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in this issue. Others think it came from the other side of the Atlantic. When one week’s headlines were dominated by the childcare arrangements of a government advisor, a number of key stories were missed. The public rely on the media for their information and, at times, the quality and accuracy has been seriously substandard. “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” Niels Bohr (1885 – 1962) In keeping with the famous quote above, our outlook for stock markets in 2018 is unashamedly honest; it’s very difficult to predict. The unprecedented events of 2020 demonstrated quite how difficult it can be. “Never make forecasts, especially about the future,” our old friend Sam Goldwyn said. Prediction about the future gets much easier though if the law and legally binding documents poorly explained compel a particular vision. (JSTOR), 1961 May, The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science / Revue Canadienne d’Economique et de Science politique, Volume 27, Number 2, “Canada’s Economic Prospects: A Survey of Ten Industries” by Jesse W. Markham, Page 264, Blackwell Publishing on behalf of Canadian Economics Association. In 1988 an article in the journal “The Hastings Center Report” assigned the saying to Nostradamus who was well-known for his prophecies: 19. Englisch-Deutsch-Wörterbuch: Prediction is very difficult especially about the future Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Page 101 (approximate) As Niels Bohr, the Danish physicist, put it, “prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”. . Niels Bohr died in 1962, and the first published linkage of his name to the expression known to QI appeared in 1971. This has not been helped by at least one UK paper wanting to talk to experts who agree with their chosen line and TV news presenters, using their own words to explain something in the absence of any facts. Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future. Search for other works by this author on: For the ACTT-1 Study Group Members. Yogi Berra? Niels Bohr, the Nobel laureate in Physics and father of the atomic model, is quoted as saying, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future!” This quote serves as a warning of the importance of testing a forecasting model out-of-sample. On This Page How To Anticipate Resistance. Metric Details. Where people get their information from has been plagued by false and misleading claims on social media often going viral. In 1998 the book “To Light Such a Candle: Chapters in the History of Science and Technology” by Keith J. Laidler suggested that Mark Twain used the saying: 21. Cite This Article . Niels Bohr? In 1988 an article in the journal “The Hastings Center Report” assigned the saying to Nostradamus who was well-known for his prophecies: 19, Nostradamus allegedly said, “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.”, In 1991 a marketer in the tourism industry in Virginia ascribed a variant of the saying to Yogi Berra: 20. Pathways to Resistance. Er de faktorer, der bevirker prisfald, stærkere end de, der presser priserne op? As Mark Twain said, it is difficult to make predictions, particularly about the future. “"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future. Free Online Library: Antimicrobial drug resistance: "prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (1). (Verified on microfilm), 1980 August 26, Finger Lake Times Three Options for the Soviets, (Acknowledgement to Economist, London), Quote Page 5, Column 1, Geneva, New York. Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. We live in a global world and the world needs a global body to help control pandemics. Another feature of the pandemic has been the number of public health professionals putting the public health perspective in the media. We have seen serious issues in care homes in many countries.4 This has led to many deaths in these places amongst those most vulnerable in our society, but the difficulties in keeping infection out and under control in these places was always going to be a Herculean task once there was widespread transmission in the community. (Internet Archive), 1969, How to Use the Computer in Business Planning by Henry F. Lande, Section: The Purpose of This Book, Quote Page ix, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. The main issue at hand is our ability to predict and prepare for the future. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic. Never make forecasts, especially about the future. (Questia), 2000, Asian Economic Trends and Their Security Implications by Charles Wolf Jr., Anil Bamezai, K. C. Yeh, and Benjamin Zycher, Chapter One, Quote Page 1, Publisher by Rand, Santa Monica, California. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Also, thus far too many trials from around the world have involved retrospective analysis with historical controls. "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." K. K. Steincke? Randall Foskey, director of admissions marketing for Colonial Williamsburg, probably said it best last week at the legislative dinner sponsored by the Virginia Hospitality and Travel Association. Most medical fields have adopted the advantage of having specialists in small areas (such as cardiologist and neurosurgeons) whilst public health has had a one size fits all. Quote by Niels Bohr: “Prediction is very difficult, especially about ...”. Schrodi SJ(1), Mukherjee S(2), Shan Y(3), Tromp G(4), Sninsky JJ(5), Callear AP(6), Carter TC(1), Ye Z(7), Haines JL(8), Brilliant MH(1), Crane PK(2), Smelser DT(4), Elston RC(8), Weeks DE(3). Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially About the Future* Latronico, Nicola MD. ... quote from our Absurd Quotes, Adult Humour Quotes, Funny Quotes, Quotes About Life, Short Quotes, Truth Quotes, Wisdom Favorite Quotes categories. (Questia), 1991 January 20, Richmond Times-Dispatch, Section: Area/State, “Tourist Visits to State Sites Up 0.1% IN ’90 – Blue Ridge Highlands Region has Biggest Gain, 6.1 Percent”, Author: Wilford Kale, Quote Page F-1, Richmond, Virginia. Pictures are cropped. by "Emerging Infectious Diseases"; Health, general Antimicrobial additives Research Microbial mutation Boldface added to excerpts by QI: 1. Keith Neal. Da den kloge biskop Absalon i ellevehundredhvidkål grundlagde København, var han en meget fremsynet mand, alle datidens byplan teoretikere har sikkert stottet ham i overbevisningen om, …, History Does Not Repeat Itself. Calls for an inquiry by Australia were met by China imposing trade tariffs on Australia within days. The media in the UK during May 2020 seemed to have adopted the attitude regarding everything that was being done and happening was wrong. The metadata and the snippet text presented by Google Books are sometimes inaccurate. Link: here, Nu er det imidlertid, som Storm-P. sagde, vanskeligt at spå — især om fremtiden — og det er forskellige faktorer, der trækker hver sin vej. In July 1973 the periodical New Scientist printed an instance without attribution: 13. (Great thanks to top lexicographical researcher Barry Popik for his pioneering work on this topic. ... Keith Neal, Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future 1, Journal of Public Health, Volume 42, … Let us put our minds together and see what life we can make for our children. It furthers the University's objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide, This PDF is available to Subscribers Only. København] : Arkitektens forlag, 1948- (Verified on paper), 2012, The Dictionary of Modern Proverbs, Compiled by Charles Clay Doyle, Wolfgang Mieder, and Fred R. Shapiro, Page 206, Yale University Press, New Haven. Horby P, Shen Lim W, Emberson J et al. Unsurprisingly, given COVID-19 being a new disease, there were many different views put forward, but too many were putting themselves forward as experts when it was far from their fields of expertise. Recommend to friends. Also, thanks to Esben Mølgaard for his willingness to help. (Questia). Would you please tell me who I should credit? But there exist other potential Danish citations. Volumes: 5-6 The rise of UKIP, the increasing dominance of the SNP within Scotland, and the gaining in strength of the Greens are parallel electoral phenomena with little historical precedent. This meant that the results of a trial2 showing Remdesivir shortened serious illness by 4 days went virtually unreported despite this being highly relevant to anyone unfortunate to become seriously ill with COVID-19 infection. The Historians Repeat One Another, Drawing on My Fine Command of Language, I Said Nothing, Dr. Mardy's Dictionary of Metaphorical Quotations. “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra Read more quotes from Yogi Berra. Comment on Obstet Gynecol. 2 More information about Danish citations for this saying is presented in the addendum at the end of this article. Downloads Article . On 16 June 2020, the UK reported the first drug, dexamethasone, to improve mortality from a randomized control trial (RCT).3 It has taken the UK leading the world in recruitment to RCTs to show this benefit; something that would have been shown months earlier if China and the World Health Organization (WHO) had actively organized proper trials instead of ad hoc treatments of various drugs and various Chinese medicines, none of which seem to be properly described even in submitted papers. Keith Neal, Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future1, Journal of Public Health, Volume 42, Issue 3, September 2020, Pages 443–444, https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdaa141. Many thanks to Egil Gersov of Åbo Akademis bibliotek for locating the saying in “Farvel Og Tak” and creating scans. "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." Especially if it's about the future.I rarely make firm market forecasts. Who first said "It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future" (or one of its many variants)? “Prediction Is V ery Difficult, Especially About the Fut ure” (Niels Boh r) Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MCS.2013.2295692 Date of publica tion: 14 March 2014 .Danish Proverb, In 1969 the book “How to Use the Computer in Business Planning” included an instance of the quip without attribution: 10, Let us not forget the old adage, “Forecasting is very difficult, especially about the future.”, In 1971 a version of the saying was attributed to the famous physicist Niels Bohr in the pages of the “Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists”. Year: 1953 (approximate) The first written instance now known was dated 1948. Editorials . First of all, predictions become more difficult as the number of outcomes one is trying to predict increases. These expressions have been attributed to a diverse collection of individuals, including Niels Bohr, Sam Goldwyn, Robert Storm Petersen, and Yogi Berra. Van Holsbeke C(1). (Old Fulton), 1984 March 12, The Post (The Palm Beach Post), Actress Gears Up For Busy Schedule by Liz Smith (Syndicated Column), Quote Page B2, Column 1, Palm Beach, Florida. 56. citations of this article EID Journal Metrics on Scopus. Those who have to make or inform the decisions are often in a no-win situation, as every country will be found to have made mistakes by the time the pandemic is over. As quoted in Teaching and Learning Elementary Social Studies (1970) by Arthur K. Ellis, p. 431 (The first volume of this book is 1977. The failure to organize proper RCTs of repurposed drugs for treating COVID-19 in the early months of 2020 is clearly a failing of both the Chinese authorities and the WHO. That said, whether you are making climate predictions, or predictions about what kind of car and highway you’ll be driving in 20 years, predictions about the future are indeed difficult. (Google News Archive), 1988 December, Journal title: The Hastings Center Report, Volume 18, Number 6, Article title: Precatory Prediction and Mindless Mimicry: The Case of Mary O’Connor, Author: George J. Annas, (Unnumbered page in database), Published by Hastings Center. Series A”. Here are five examples: Of course, a prediction is inherently about the future, and the modifiers “especially” and “particularly” emphasize the comical redundancy of the statement. It is said that that Bohr used to quote this saying to … Prediction is difficult, especially about the future Prediction is difficult, especially about the future . All rights reserved. like predicting the future, it seems that the true provenence is murky. Nobody digging into their Christmas turkey last year could have seen the black swan of … As a recent example of the undaunted, Gupta et al1 describe the development and validation of a predictive instrument designed to estimate the risk of adverse outcomes for children who have undergone cardiac surgery. (Verified on paper), 1979 September 8, The Economist, Section: Books, Kahn and his banzai, (Book review of “World Economic Development 1979 and Beyond” and “The Japanese Challenge”, Start Page 120, Quote Page 121, Column 1, Published by Economist Newspaper Ltd., London. 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(Accessed Archive at ngfweb.no on October 19, 2013), 1963 December, Computers and Automation, Volume 12, Number 12, Diebold Researchers Undertake Study of EDP Developments, Quote Page 10, Column 1, Published by Berkeley Enterprises, Inc, Newtonville, Massachusetts. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future-Niels Bohr. “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future!” - Niels Bohr, Nobel laureate Physicist “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times” - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities. Link: here, … „Det er vanskeligt at spå, navnlig om fremtiden”? Forecasting “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.” Nils Bohr Objectives • Give the fundamental rules It is the most important public health issue for decades that public health can actually affect and we have not yet seen the full impact across the world. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future-Niels Bohr Crit Care Med. Figure 2. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future As Niels Bohr, the Danish physicist, put it, “prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”. Sitting Bull. Remdesivir for the treatment of Covid-19 — preliminary report, Effect of dexamethasone in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: preliminary report, Surveillance of COVID-19 at Long-Term Care Facilities in the EU/EEA, © The Author(s) 2020. "” — Niels Bohr . Fellow scientist Stanislaw M. Ulam who knew and communicated with Bohr credited him in 1976. 1948, Farvel Og Tak: Minder Og Meninger by K. K. Steincke, (Farvel Og tak: Ogsaa en Tilvaerelse IV (1935-1939)), Quote Page 227, Forlaget Fremad, København. It is the most important public health issue for decades that public health can actually affect and we have not yet seen the full impact across the world. “It is difficult to prophesy, particularly about the future,” as one of our humorists once expressed himself. RIS [TXT - 2 KB] Article Metrics. Also, some text was rewritten. In the quest for getting the future right, we need to address two questions: do we have the right tools to understand the past, but also is having the right understanding of the past sufficient to prepare us adequately for the future? In mid-July, the world has surpassed past 250 000 daily cases. Volume: 48 doi: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000000795. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. This was again under-reported, although a number of media interviewers later in the week questioned how he could be so optimistic during interviews on their programmes. 2017 Dec;130(6):1181-1182. 2018 Mar;131(3):603. Genetic-based prediction of disease traits: prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. “In the words of Yogi Berra, ‘I never make predictions, especially about the future,'” Foskey said. This is despite mounting evidence that the virus had already spread to Europe before the seriousness of the situation was fully appreciated even in China itself. "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." Here are two relevant matches with metadata and extracted text in Danish from GB and WorldCat. "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." Thanks also to Douglas G. Wilson for his analysis of the supposed 1918 citation. Special thanks to Seamus Bradley, Daniel Gackle, and Janos Simon whose inquires motivated QI to formulate this question and perform this exploration. predictions about future performance. Year: 1952 (approximate) Quote: Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Prediction at the Genetic Level. 2015 Feb;43(2):505-6. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000000795. Update History: On July 13, 2016 the 1948 citation for “Farvel Og Tak” was updated to indicate that it had been verified with scans. The regulation of false information on social media platforms is something that needs to be urgently addressed. If you can read Danish and have access to a comprehensive library perhaps you would be willing to help. The world needs an enquiry so as to learn as many lessons as possible. This is because, as Sam Goldwyn once said, it is difficult to make forecasts, especially about the future. As Niels Bohr said in one of his amusing remarks: “It is very hard to predict, especially the future.” But I think mathematics will greatly change its aspect. The saying was attributed Storm P (Robert Storm Petersen) in the following: Periodical Title: LO-Bladet It was the brilliant statesman, diplomat and politician, Abba Eban, who made the wry observation, "Prediction is difficult, especially about the future." (JSTOR), 1962, Journal Name: Geofysiske Publikasjoner: Geophysica Norvegica, Volume 24, Special Issue: In memory of Vilhelm Bjerknes on the 100th Aniversary of His Birth, Article Title: “Vilhelm Bjerknes, March 14, 1862 – April 19, 1951”, Authors: Tor Bergeron, Olaf Devik, and Carl Ludvig Godske, Article Section: “Back in Oslo” by Carl Ludvig Godske, Start Page 21, Quote Page 25, Published by Det Norske Videnskaps-Akademi i Oslo, Universitetsforlaget, Oslo, Published in cooperation with the American Meteorological Society, Boston, Massachusetts. So, here is our forecast for 2020: It will continue to be tough to make predictions, especially about the future. Hurricane Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially if It's About the Future. Niels Bohr. The two can hardly be seen as unconnected. Danish text is followed by an English rendering below. In 1980 a newspaper in New York reprinted a different article from “The Economist” that credited Samuel Goldwyn: 17, Every prognosis here should be salted with all the familiar cautionary phrases, from Samuel Johnson’s snort (when warned in 1770 of Britain’s supposed impending ruin) that “there is a great deal of ruin in a country”, to Samuel Goldwyn’s “never prophesy, especially about the future”, In 1984 the popular syndicated gossip columnist Liz Smith ascribed the adage to Goldwyn: 18. (Sorry about the number of dead links on this page---it's tedious to keep it up to date!) This post was originally published here. Hence, citations must be verified on paper. Dear Quote Investigator: There is a family of popular humorous sayings about the formidable task of successful prognostication. Authors Anne L Donovan, Michael A Gropper. Others say that it was the American film producer Samuel Goldwin who said “never make predictions – especially when the future is concerned”. Keith Neal Premila Webster. The aforementioned sentiment, which may have been uttered by Niels Bohr, is, thankfully, frequently ignored by medical investigators. Now, there is a saying, attributed to Niels Bohr but apparently an old Danish proverb, that it is difficult to predict, especially the future. “Prediction Is V ery Difficult, Especially About the Fut ure” (Niels Boh r) Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MCS.2013.2295692 Date of publica tion: 14 March 2014 There is The monumental uplifts in digital volumes, shifts in customer requirements and broader economic impact would have been (and frankly still […] Posted Nov 02, 2010 Image Notes: The Crystal Ball circa 1902 by John William Waterhouse. Author information: (1)Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Ziekenhuis Oost-Limburg, ZOL, Genk, Belgium. . For full access to this pdf, sign in to an existing account, or purchase an annual subscription. Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially If It Is About the Future. This “1970” date is incorrect in Google Books—ed.) Indeed, the phrasing changed over time and was highly variable: 5. Simon Wilson, Co-Head, Payments at Icon Solutions It has been said that prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future. The first appearance in English located by QI was printed in a 1956 academic publication called the “Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. “Prediction,” goes an old Danish proverb, “is hazardous, especially about the future.” For the Canadian economy the hazard is especially great. While it sounds more like a " Yogi-ism ," the point made is interesting particularly as it relates to investing. Alas, it is always dangerous to prophesy, particularly, as the Danish proverb says, about the future. (JSTOR), 1973 July 12, New Scientist, Exponential Living by Lord Bowden, (Book Review of “The Logarithmic Century”), Start Page 100, Quote Page 100, New Science Publications, London. The above quote is also attributed to various humourists and the Danish poet Piet Hein: “det er svært at spå - især om fremtiden” . In 1979 a book reviewer in the London magazine “The Economist” attached the expression to the movie mogul Sam Goldwyn who was well-known for his humorously incongruous statements: 16. (NewsBank Access World News), 1998, Book title: To Light Such a Candle: Chapters in the History of Science and Technology, Author: Keith J. Laidler, Quote Page 3, Publisher: Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK. In Focus. Not so in 2015. The words were credited to an unidentified Danish humorist: 6. Publisher: Kbhvn. Niels Bohr, the famous Danish physicist, devoted all his work to understand the where and what of an elementary particle in the now, so when asked about the future, he said “Prediction is very difficult, especially when the future is concerned”. In 2000 an article from the RAND Corporation thank tank mentioned ascriptions to Mark Twain and Yogi Berra: 22, Two familiar quotations are worth citing to clarify the objectives of this analysis. Quote Investigator: The Danish politician Karl Kristian Steincke authored a multi-volume autobiography, and the earliest evidence known to QI appeared in the fourth volume titled “Farvel Og Tak” (“Goodbye and Thanks”) which was released in 1948. We must be clear that when it comes to atoms, language can be used only as in poetry. By Tim Doggett | June 2, 2014. Something drastic may evolve, an entirely different point of view on the axiomatic method itself. Samuel Goldwyn? View Forecasting.ppt from STATISTIC 3003 at GLA University. Quite how difficult it can be used only as in poetry Yogi Berra, ‘ I make. Be willing to help control pandemics ” date is incorrect in Google Books—ed. of outcomes one trying... Without attribution: 13 Tomashek KM, Dodd LE et al the physicist Niels Bohr in. 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